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Let’s find out if Storm Callum will make an appearance this month in the latest update from MeteoGroup meteorologists Richard Martin-Barton and Matt Dobson.

A look back

The first five or so days of September were dominated by high pressure, which gave a lot of settled weather with light winds. However, a weak front straddling the North West region on the 3^rd gave some patchy rain and showers during the morning. Further dry and settled weather continued until the night of the 5^th, when an occluded front moving down from the North West brought a little rain, with showers moving into the Manchester and Liverpool region on the 6^th and 7^th.

A period of unsettled weather followed until the 14^th, with some heavy rain at times on the 10^th and 11^th. Westerly winds on the 13^th and 14^th brought some showers to the region, some of which were heavy along a cold front on the 14^th.

However, the third week of September was notable for its storminess, with the Met Office naming two storms affecting the region and one ex-hurricane. This is especially unusual for September. Storm Helene, whose roots could be traced back to an Atlantic Hurricane, brought gusty winds and some rain during the early hours of 18^th, while Storm Ali gave a short spell of squally winds and heavy rain during the day on the 19^th. Storm Bronagh followed hot on the heels of Ali and brought persistent, heavy rain to the region on the 20^th, with gusty winds overnight into the 21^st, before moving off into the North Sea.

A look ahead

The first week of October will be rather breezy, with a westerly airflow bringing quite changeable weather. Areas of low pressure are expected to pass from east to west to the north of Scotland, with several fronts moving across northern England, bringing some cloudy and wet weather around mid-week. After the chilly end to September, it should become milder at night in the first week of the month.

MeteoGroup meteorologists have been anticipating a pattern change over the UK and Europe during the first half of October, and this looks increasingly likely to occur week beginning Monday 8th. High pressure to the west of the UK and low pressure over Scandinavia has recently been feeding in a few spells of chilly air from the north. Next week, the high pressure will build over eastern Europe and Scandinavia and low pressure areas will deepen to the west of the UK. This will draw up some very mild air from the south, with the days and also the nights being mild. Some wet weather sweeping across the region at times, accompanied by brisk south-westerly winds.

Through the rest of the month, it does seem that we will see further fairly mild and unsettled weather, as high pressure remains to the east of the UK on many days, while a few more vigorous Atlantic low pressure areas edge in from the west. A slight chance of a more settled and less warm interlude, should the main low pressure track slip down into Spain and France, allowing the Scandinavian high pressure area to move in our direction.

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