Electricity North West is accelerating its predication for how quickly the North West will shift to electric vehicles as a result of the significant reduction in battery costs in 2021.
The network operator has increased its forecast by 20% since last year, meaning it now expects to see up to 1.2 million electric vehicles on UK roads before 2030.
These predictions form part of Electricity North West’s annual Distribution Future Electricity Scenarios (DFES) report, which sets out how it expects the way we use energy will change over the next 30 years.
This year’s report also estimates that the government’s Heat and Building Strategy, published last year, will lead to 200,000 heat pumps replacing gas boilers in the North West by the end of this decade.
As a result of these shifts, Electricity North West expects the demand for power to increase by a third of its current levels by 2030 and has set out a detailed plan to show how it will ensure the network is ready for this surge in demand, investing £1.8bn between 2023 and 2028 to create vital new capacity.
The business will deliver the plan at the lowest cost to customers, reducing its part of energy bills by at least 5.5% a year, while leading the region to a net zero carbon future.
Steve Cox, who leads Electricity North West’s innovation and modernisation strategies, said: “With falling battery costs making electric vehicles more and more affordable, we’re expecting a revolution in how people get around the region.
“We expect the number of electric vehicles on the North West’s roads to soar from around 20,000 now to more than 1.2 million by the end of the decade.
“But that shift to electric transport will be just one of a number of huge transitions we will make over the next eight years. As the network operator, we make these detailed assessments to ensure we’re ready for them all.”
The company will use its DFES to create a Network Development Plan report (May 2022), which will set out in detail what a number of different scenarios could mean for the North West’s electricity network, and how it will manage the essential infrastructure that residents and businesses rely on to power their daily lives.
As well as investing in creating new capacity, one of the other things the business is doing to manage demand on the network is offering heavy users of power such as businesses the opportunity to earn money by reducing the amount of electricity they use, or increasing the amount they generate, at peak times.
Mr Cox added: “As the network operator, it’s our job to make sure that everyone living and working in the North West can continue to depend on the network, just as they do now, even with all these rapid changes.
“This report will help us to determine how we balance the supply and demand on the network.
“Flexibility services – where we work with businesses to encourage them to use power more flexibly – are a key tool that help us to decarbonise our electricity supply, while ensuring that our networks remain resilient, reliable and meet our customers’ needs now and throughout the transition.”
Electricity North West’s full DFES report, together with the full data workbook that supports it, can be found at https://www.enwl.co.uk/dfes/.
